There’s no such thing as a sure investment, in watches as in life. The market could crash at any point and leave anyone playing the game bereft of Monopoly money. That said, there are a few timepieces that seem about as close to a sure thing as makes no difference, the kind of watches that every collector, expert and auctioneer will tell you will, almost certainly, go up in value.
Here then are the five watches of 2021 so far that we expect to make seriously good investments. If you can get hold of them in the first place, anyway.
Patek Philippe Nautilus Green Ref. 5771/1A

The last hurrah of the world’s most sought-after timepiece was always going to be a showstopper, but a steel Nautilus with a green dial? That’s the holiest of grail watches. If you were one of the lucky few that managed to get hold of one, you have incredible gains guaranteed. If not, it’s worth snapping up any one you see, even if you pay out the ear. When this starts coming to auction, expect jaw-dropping prices as standard.
For £26,870 this is a no-brainer. Blue-dialled versions regularly achieved above 70K before the announcement that they were going out of production. Now they’re coasting towards £90,000. If these don’t get well above £100K then its because the financial sector has crashed, again.
Read more on this spectacular investment watch here.
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Extra-Thin “Jumbo” Green Ref. 15202PT.OO.1240PT.01

Another collectors’ darling draped in green, for my money the ultra-thin Jumbo suits its smoky emerald green a touch better than the olive of the Nautilus. That’s largely due to dropping the collection’s signature Grand Tapesserie in favour of a beautifully streamlined look and casing it in platinum. Otherwise, it’s the same as ever, meaning the ultimate Royal Oak, slim, sophisticated and on one of the best bracelets in the business.
Prices for the standard Royal Oak Extra-Thin “Jumbos” show an impressive increase on the £26,400 price tag, ranging well into the 60-70K mark. This being the first of its kind -and incredibly handsome to boot, expect a serious increase on its substantial £96,100 price. Three times? Maybe.
Read more on what is surprisingly the first green Jumbo here.
Tudor Black Bay 925 Ref. 79010SG

While it doesn’t require nearly the same kind of down-payment as others on this list, Tudor are one of the surest best out there when it comes to making your money work. This silver-cased version was the brand’s biggest hit of 2021 and it’s not hard to see why. The rarely used metal paired with the Black Bay’s retro handsome looks and a nice bit of taupe, it’s an unusual looking diver that still has all the credentials a professional underwater explorer could want.
At £3,230 it’s pricey compared to most Tudors, but given that the likes of Mister Rolex (@misterrolex) have already put their names down, this may well be a future classic in the making.
Read more about Tudor’s latest Black Bays here.
Rolex Explorer 36mm Ref. 124273

Yes, there’s some controversy around this one. A lot of collectors haven’t taken to the new, smaller, bi-colour Rolex and while I’m personally more a fan of the steel-only version, division is what’s made many a reference famous. In fact, some of the most valuable vintage Rolexes are ones that, at the time, just didn’t sell all that well. Could that be the case for this? Maybe. Either way, it’s a Rolex so it’s going to be worth a shot.
Modern 36mm Explorers will set you back round-about £7,600, meaning they’re not quite the explosive increases that you’ll find from Daytonas. They are on the up though and are an unsung hero of the Rolex line, making this new version a solid investment even with its £8,700 starting price.
Read more about the downsized Rolex Explorer here.
Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch Professional Ref. 311.30.42.30.01.005

The much-needed revamp of the Speedy earlier in the year not only added some vintage touches to the formula – the kind an Omega obsessive will fawn over – but the newly upgrade movement brings the Moonwatch into the 2020s in style. It’s by far the easiest to get hold of on this list, but opt for the original-appropriate Hesalite crystal version on its shiny new steel bracelet and you have a retro modern classic on your hands, heritage, horology and handsomeness all in one.
Prices for the various limited edition Speedies have been pretty unreliable over the years. The Moonwatch Professional however has always been solid as it’s always a classic. It’s also readily available so there’s no premium for scarcity. In short, you won’t lose money on it, but it might not increase meteorically either. Either way, it’s a lot of watch for £5,370.
Read everything you need to know about the updated Speedmasters here.